Arthur Hayes has written a recent article that explores the recent market turmoil and its implications on the crypto industry. He acknowledges that many investors have suffered as the crypto market has experienced a decline from mid-April to the present. Hayes rejects the idea that this downturn is going to drive investors away, as he thinks they will return when Bitcoin starts trending upwards.
Hayes attributes market fluctuations to a number of factors. He mentions that the US tax period is a major factor in market fluctuations. Investors are often under pressure to sell as they try to offset their losses or realize gains. He also highlights the uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's actions and their impact on the markets. The Bitcoin halving in May 2024 was also a factor that contributed to market volatility. Hayes also notes that the US Bitcoin ETF assets managed have slowed down, adding to the market's cleansing.
The article goes on to discuss the actions taken by the US Treasury and Federal Reserve in providing liquidity fiat to the market. Hayes explains how, while quantitative easing has been associated money printing and inflation the Fed has changed their approach to maintain stability of the fiat system. The Fed injects more dollar liquidity in the market by reducing the pace at which quantitative tightening is conducted. Hayes analyses the impact of this shift in policy and predicts an increase in stimulus for global assets markets.
Hayes then turns his attention to the US Treasury and the Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. He focuses on the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA), a market guide for the issuance and repayment of government debt. Hayes analyses the borrowing estimates and discusses how they could impact the bond market, long-end rates and the bond market. He predicts that Yellen will implement yield curve management measures to control the situation.
Hayes discusses the failure of Republic First Bank, and its consequences. He explains that, while the failure may not be of great significance, the response by the authorities is notable. The FDIC insures up to $250,000 in deposits at any US bank. The FDIC is expected to compensate uninsured deposits in the case of Republic First Bank. This highlights the political importance surrounding bank failures during an election year.
Arthur Hayes concludes with a comprehensive review of recent market turmoil and its underlying causes. His insight into the Federal Reserve's actions, the US Treasury's response to bank failures, and his insights on the Federal Reserve sheds light on the current status of the cryptomarket.
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